- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.33
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.7%
Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
How the numbers for Ikorodu City v Shooting Stars are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikorodu City (home) | 1.62 | 1.18 | 1.13 | 2.16 |
| Shooting Stars (away) | 0.74 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.94 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.18 × 1.13 ≈ 2.16
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.11 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.33 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.33 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ikorodu City | 64.4% | 61.0% | – | 61.0% |
| X Draw | 20.5% | 11.0% | – | 11.0% |
| 2 Shooting Stars | 15.1% | 28.0% | – | 28.0% |
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ikorodu City | 61.0% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
| X · Draw | 11.0% | 9.09 | – | – | – | |
| 2 · Shooting Stars | 28.0% | 3.57 | – | – | – | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.0% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ikorodu City | 68.5% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Shooting Stars | 31.5% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 79.3% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 54.2% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.5% | 5.73 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ikorodu City | Shooting Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDWL | WLDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Ikorodu City 61% to win. Standings: Ikorodu City 4th on 58, Shooting Stars 3rd on 60.
Form
Sequence for Ikorodu City: L W L D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Niger Tornadoes. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Shooting Stars, last six: W L D D L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Ranchers Bees. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ikorodu City 1.51 · Shooting Stars 0.82 · total 2.33. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 79%. Most probable score: Ikorodu City 1–0 Shooting Stars. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 79.
What are the Ikorodu City v Shooting Stars probabilities?
Ikorodu City win 61%, draw 11%, Shooting Stars win 28%.
What is the most probable score for Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars?
Ikorodu City 1–0 Shooting Stars is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars?
Ikorodu City 1.51, Shooting Stars 0.82 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Mobolaji Johnson Arena – NPFL.