- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 0.72
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.3%
Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Enugu Rangers v Bendel Insurance: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Enugu Rangers v Bendel Insurance are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enugu Rangers (home) | 1.62 | 1.18 | 1.09 | 2.09 |
| Bendel Insurance (away) | 0.74 | 1.34 | 0.82 | 0.81 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.18 × 1.09 ≈ 2.09
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.90 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.05 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.40 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 0.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Enugu Rangers | 66.2% | 71.0% | 59.0% | 66.0% |
| X Draw | 20.6% | 19.0% | 26.5% | 22.2% |
| 2 Bendel Insurance | 13.2% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 11.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Enugu Rangers | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -0.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -25.6% | |
| 2 · Bendel Insurance | 11.9% | 8.41 | 6.15 | 16.3% | -26.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.1% | 1.13 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -8.4% | |
| X2 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -25.8% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Enugu Rangers | 84.7% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bendel Insurance | 15.3% | 6.55 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -4.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -20.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -0.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -14.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.3% | 3.81 | 3.76 | 26.6% | -1.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -12.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.2% | 1.95 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +10.1% | |
| BTTS no | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -22.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.0% | 7.69 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.512 × 2.15 − 1 = +0.101 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.088 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Enugu Rangers | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWDWW | WWLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Enugu Rangers at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Enugu Rangers 1st on 68, Bendel Insurance 7th on 53.
Form
Enugu Rangers, last six: D L W D W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Rivers United. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Bendel Insurance: W W L W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Kwara United. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Enugu Rangers 1.97 · Bendel Insurance 0.72 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.15 v fair 1.95. Most probable score: Enugu Rangers 2–1 Bendel Insurance. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.15 by the bookmakers.
What are the Enugu Rangers v Bendel Insurance probabilities?
Enugu Rangers win 66%, draw 22%, Bendel Insurance win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance?
Enugu Rangers 2–1 Bendel Insurance is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance?
Enugu Rangers 1.97, Bendel Insurance 0.72 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance?
Wednesday 4 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium – NPFL.