- λ home
- 1.12
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.1%
Doma United vs Plateau United prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
How the numbers for Doma United v Plateau United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.38 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.12, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Doma United | – | 41.0% | – | 41.0% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | – | 11.0% |
| 2 Plateau United | – | 48.0% | – | 48.0% |
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Doma United | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| X · Draw | 11.0% | 9.09 | – | – | – | |
| 2 · Plateau United | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 59.0% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Doma United | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Plateau United | 53.9% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.3% | 3.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.7% | 4.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 78.3% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.2% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Doma United | Plateau United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWW | WWLLWD |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.25 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 33% |
| BTTS | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 41%.
Form
Doma United, last four: L W W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–4 away at Kano Pillars. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Plateau United: W W L L W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Shooting Stars. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Doma United 1.12 · Plateau United 1.26 · total 2.38. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 78%. Most probable score: Doma United 0–1 Plateau United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
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Ranchers Bees0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Doma United vs Plateau United?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 78.
What are the Doma United v Plateau United probabilities?
Doma United win 41%, draw 11%, Plateau United win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Doma United vs Plateau United?
Doma United 0–1 Plateau United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Doma United vs Plateau United?
Doma United 1.12, Plateau United 1.26 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Doma United vs Plateau United?
Wednesday 23 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Pantami Stadium – NPFL.