- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.3%
Ranchers Bees vs Bendel Insurance prediction & xG model: Ranchers Bees to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ranchers Bees v Bendel Insurance: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipRanchers Bees to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Ranchers Bees v Bendel Insurance are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranchers Bees (home) | 1.62 | 0.86 | 1.09 | 1.52 |
| Bendel Insurance (away) | 0.74 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 0.86 × 1.09 ≈ 1.52
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.54 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.67 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ranchers Bees | 47.7% | 67.0% | 55.0% | 62.0% |
| X Draw | 27.1% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Bendel Insurance | 25.2% | 15.0% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ranchers Bees pick | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +0.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.2% | |
| 2 · Bendel Insurance | 15.5% | 6.45 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -14.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -7.1% | |
| X2 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -20.1% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ranchers Bees | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bendel Insurance | 20.0% | 5.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +15.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -19.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.9% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.9% | 6.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.620 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.006 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ranchers Bees | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LL | WLWDWL |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ranchers Bees at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Bendel Insurance, last six: W L W D W L – three wins in total. Latest: 4–2 at home to Kun Khalifat FC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ranchers Bees 1.97 · Bendel Insurance 0.89 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ranchers Bees to win, probability 62%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Ranchers Bees 1–0 Bendel Insurance. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
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Sporting Lagos0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ranchers Bees vs Bendel Insurance?
The Model pick is Ranchers Bees to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ranchers Bees v Bendel Insurance probabilities?
Ranchers Bees win 62%, draw 23%, Bendel Insurance win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Ranchers Bees vs Bendel Insurance?
Ranchers Bees 1–0 Bendel Insurance is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ranchers Bees vs Bendel Insurance?
Ranchers Bees 1.97, Bendel Insurance 0.89 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Ranchers Bees vs Bendel Insurance?
Sunday 20 September 2026, 16:00 WAT – NPFL.