- λ home
- 1.84
- λ away
- 0.75
- Σλ total
- 2.59
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 43%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.8%
Shooting Stars vs Kano Pillars prediction & xG model: Shooting Stars to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Shooting Stars v Kano Pillars: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipShooting Stars to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Shooting Stars v Kano Pillars are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.59 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.84, λaway = 0.75
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Shooting Stars | – | 64.0% | 61.9% | 63.1% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 26.2% | 22.6% |
| 2 Kano Pillars | – | 16.0% | 11.9% | 14.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Shooting Stars pick | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -9.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -23.1% | |
| 2 · Kano Pillars | 14.3% | 7.01 | 7.50 | 13.3% | +7.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -9.1% | |
| X2 | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -11.5% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Shooting Stars | 81.6% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kano Pillars | 18.4% | 5.42 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -0.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -9.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.2% | 3.81 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.2% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 56.8% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.1% | 7.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.631 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Shooting Stars | Kano Pillars |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWLL | DDDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Shooting Stars at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Shooting Stars 3rd on 60, Kano Pillars 10th on 51.
Form
Shooting Stars, last six: D L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Nasarawa United. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for Kano Pillars: D D D W W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Sporting Lagos. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Shooting Stars 2–1 Kano Pillars. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Shooting Stars 1.84 · Kano Pillars 0.75 · total 2.59. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 43%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Shooting Stars to win, probability 63%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Shooting Stars 1–0 Kano Pillars. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Mar 2026Shooting Stars2–1Kano Pillars
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Shooting Stars vs Kano Pillars?
The Model pick is Shooting Stars to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Shooting Stars v Kano Pillars probabilities?
Shooting Stars win 63%, draw 23%, Kano Pillars win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Shooting Stars vs Kano Pillars?
Shooting Stars 1–0 Kano Pillars is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Shooting Stars vs Kano Pillars?
Shooting Stars 1.84, Kano Pillars 0.75 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 43%.
What time is Shooting Stars vs Kano Pillars?
Wednesday 7 October 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Lekan Salami Stadium – NPFL.