- λ home
- 2.03
- λ away
- 0.78
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.3%
Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance prediction & xG model: Nasarawa United to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Nasarawa United v Bendel Insurance: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNasarawa United to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Nasarawa United v Bendel Insurance are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasarawa United (home) | 1.62 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 1.74 |
| Bendel Insurance (away) | 0.74 | 1.34 | 0.85 | 0.84 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 0.98 × 1.09 ≈ 1.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.58 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.24 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.03, λaway = 0.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nasarawa United | 57.6% | 71.0% | 54.2% | 63.9% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 23.0% | 27.9% | 25.1% |
| 2 Bendel Insurance | 17.7% | 6.0% | 17.9% | 11.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Nasarawa United pick | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +5.5% | |
| X · Draw | 25.1% | 3.99 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -19.8% | |
| 2 · Bendel Insurance | 11.0% | 9.10 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -45.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.0% | 1.12 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -1.2% | |
| X2 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -24.3% | |
| 12 | 74.9% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Nasarawa United | 85.3% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bendel Insurance | 14.7% | 6.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 4.38 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 2.40 | 41.7% | +10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -17.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 53.9% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.6% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.8% | 7.25 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.639 × 1.65 − 1 = +0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.085 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Nasarawa United | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWLDW | WDWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Nasarawa United 64% to win. Standings: Nasarawa United 5th on 56, Bendel Insurance 7th on 53.
Form
Nasarawa United, last six: L D W L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Barau FC. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Bendel Insurance have two wins from their last six (W D W L D L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Warri Wolves. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Nasarawa United 1–0 Bendel Insurance. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Nasarawa United 2.03 · Bendel Insurance 0.78 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Nasarawa United to win, probability 64%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Nasarawa United 2–0 Bendel Insurance. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Feb 2026Nasarawa United1–0Bendel Insurance
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance?
The Model pick is Nasarawa United to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Nasarawa United v Bendel Insurance probabilities?
Nasarawa United win 64%, draw 25%, Bendel Insurance win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance?
Nasarawa United 2–0 Bendel Insurance is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance?
Nasarawa United 2.03, Bendel Insurance 0.78 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance?
Sunday 6 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Lafia Township Stadium – NPFL.