- λ home
- 1.22
- λ away
- 1.29
- Σλ total
- 2.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Virtus Bolzano v Calvi Noale: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Virtus Bolzano v Calvi Noale are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bolzano (home) | 1.23 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Calvi Noale (away) | 1.14 | 0.91 | 1.73 | 1.80 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.23 × 1.08 × 1.00 ≈ 1.33
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.13 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.22, λaway = 1.29
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Virtus Bolzano | 28.1% | 39.0% | 34.4% | 37.1% |
| X Draw | 24.0% | 18.0% | 28.1% | 22.3% |
| 2 Calvi Noale | 47.9% | 43.0% | 37.5% | 40.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Virtus Bolzano | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -2.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · Calvi Noale | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -2.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -14.6% | |
| X2 | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -11.9% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Virtus Bolzano | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Calvi Noale | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.18 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -5.8% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -5.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.0% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 51.0% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.540 × 1.75 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Virtus Bolzano | Calvi Noale |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWLL | LWDDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 3.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 22 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Virtus Bolzano 15th on 11, Calvi Noale 16th on 10.
Form
Sequence for Virtus Bolzano: L W L W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–7 away at Altavilla. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Calvi Noale, last six: L W D D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Brian Lignano. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Virtus Bolzano 1.22 · Calvi Noale 1.29 · total 2.51. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Virtus Bolzano 0–1 Calvi Noale. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 12 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 12 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Virtus Bolzano v Calvi Noale probabilities?
Virtus Bolzano win 37%, draw 22%, Calvi Noale win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale?
Virtus Bolzano 0–1 Calvi Noale is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale?
Virtus Bolzano 1.22, Calvi Noale 1.29 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone C.