- λ home
- 1.20
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 2.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.3%
Legnago Salus vs Bassano Virtus prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Legnago Salus v Bassano Virtus: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Legnago Salus v Bassano Virtus are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legnago Salus (home) | 1.23 | 1.38 | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Bassano Virtus (away) | 1.14 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.84 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.23 × 1.38 × 0.78 ≈ 1.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.20, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Legnago Salus | 47.0% | 43.0% | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| X Draw | 29.8% | 18.0% | 29.0% | 22.6% |
| 2 Bassano Virtus | 23.2% | 39.0% | 27.2% | 34.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Legnago Salus | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -11.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -29.9% | |
| 2 · Bassano Virtus | 34.1% | 2.94 | 3.30 | 30.3% | +12.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -15.6% | |
| X2 | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -11.0% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Legnago Salus | 56.0% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bassano Virtus | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -10.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -1.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.4% | 5.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.6% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.2% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.6% | 4.23 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.595 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Legnago Salus | Bassano Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDLL | WDDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Legnago Salus ahead at 43%, against 34% for Bassano Virtus and 23% for the draw. Standings: Legnago Salus 7th on 16, Bassano Virtus 10th on 14.
Form
Sequence for Legnago Salus: W L W D L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Campodarsego. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Bassano Virtus have one win from their last six (W D D D L L). Latest: 2–0 at home to Schio. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Legnago Salus 1.20 · Bassano Virtus 1.01 · total 2.21. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 60%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Legnago Salus 1–0 Bassano Virtus. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 12 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 12 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Legnago Salus vs Bassano Virtus?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Legnago Salus v Bassano Virtus probabilities?
Legnago Salus win 43%, draw 23%, Bassano Virtus win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Legnago Salus vs Bassano Virtus?
Legnago Salus 1–0 Bassano Virtus is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Legnago Salus vs Bassano Virtus?
Legnago Salus 1.20, Bassano Virtus 1.01 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Legnago Salus vs Bassano Virtus?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Mario Sandrini – Serie D Girone C.