- λ home
- 1.82
- λ away
- 0.97
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.2%
Triestina vs FC Obermais prediction & xG model: Triestina to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Triestina v FC Obermais: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTriestina to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Triestina v FC Obermais are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.70 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.82, λaway = 0.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Triestina | – | 61.0% | 54.1% | 58.1% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 24.4% | 21.3% |
| 2 FC Obermais | – | 20.0% | 21.5% | 20.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Triestina pick | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -3.0% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.70 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -21.3% | |
| 2 · FC Obermais | 20.6% | 4.85 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -13.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -11.1% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -9.9% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Triestina | 73.8% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Obermais | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.3% | 4.30 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.5% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 50.5% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.6% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.2% | 5.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.581 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Triestina | FC Obermais |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDLL | DLDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Triestina ahead at 58%, against 21% for FC Obermais and 21% for the draw. Standings: Triestina 12th on 13, FC Obermais 11th on 13.
Form
Triestina, last six: L D L D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–3 away at Cjarlins Muzane. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for FC Obermais: D L D W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Mestre. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Triestina 1.82 · FC Obermais 0.97 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Triestina to win, probability 58%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Triestina 1–0 FC Obermais. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 11 | -11 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Triestina vs FC Obermais?
The Model pick is Triestina to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Triestina v FC Obermais probabilities?
Triestina win 58%, draw 21%, FC Obermais win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Triestina vs FC Obermais?
Triestina 1–0 FC Obermais is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Triestina vs FC Obermais?
Triestina 1.82, FC Obermais 0.97 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Triestina vs FC Obermais?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 11:30 WAT, at Stadio Nereo Rocco – Serie D Girone C.