- λ home
- 1.01
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 1.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 42%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.8%
Este vs Conegliano prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Este v Conegliano: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Este v Conegliano are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.40 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.36 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 1.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.01, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 31.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Este | – | 40.0% | 42.9% | 41.2% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 29.0% | 22.6% |
| 2 Conegliano | – | 42.0% | 28.1% | 36.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Este | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -29.8% | |
| 2 · Conegliano | 36.2% | 2.76 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +15.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -18.3% | |
| X2 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -5.9% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Este | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Conegliano | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -18.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +3.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 12.9% | 7.76 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 87.1% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 58.0% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.0% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.9% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.1% | 4.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.640 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.059 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Este | Conegliano |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLWL | LWWDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 23 / 36% for home, draw, away. Standings: Este 8th on 16, Conegliano 9th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Este: D L L L W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Sandona. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Conegliano have two wins from their last six (L W W D L L). Latest: 0–1 at home to LME. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Este 1.01 · Conegliano 0.91 · total 1.92. Low total: under 2.5 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Este 1–0 Conegliano. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 11 | -11 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Este vs Conegliano?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Este v Conegliano probabilities?
Este win 41%, draw 23%, Conegliano win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Este vs Conegliano?
Este 1–0 Conegliano is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Este vs Conegliano?
Este 1.01, Conegliano 0.91 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 42%.
What time is Este vs Conegliano?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone C.