- λ home
- 1.60
- λ away
- 1.19
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Consadole Sapporo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Consadole Sapporo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (home) | 1.40 | 1.33 | 0.84 | 1.55 |
| Consadole Sapporo (away) | 1.22 | 1.12 | 0.70 | 0.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.33 × 0.84 ≈ 1.55
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.52 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.93 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.60, λaway = 1.19
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 50.2% | 52.0% | 43.4% | 48.4% |
| X Draw | 26.8% | 17.0% | 27.4% | 21.4% |
| 2 Consadole Sapporo | 23.0% | 31.0% | 29.2% | 30.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.072 → 7.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 48.4% | 2.07 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +4.0% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.68 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -27.3% | |
| 2 · Consadole Sapporo | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -3.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -7.2% | |
| X2 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -12.3% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 61.6% | 1.62 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Consadole Sapporo | 38.4% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -12.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -2.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -7.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.8% | 3.35 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -3.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -18.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.9% | 4.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.038 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Consadole Sapporo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLLD | DDLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 48%, draw 21%, Consadole Sapporo 30%. Standings: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2nd on 32, Consadole Sapporo 7th on 26.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki have two wins from their last six (W W L L L D). Latest: 3–0 away at Vanraure Hachinohe. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Consadole Sapporo have one win from their last six (D D L W L L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Oita Trinita. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.60 · Consadole Sapporo 1.19 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2–1 Consadole Sapporo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Consadole Sapporo probabilities?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 48%, draw 21%, Consadole Sapporo win 30%.
What is the most probable score for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2–1 Consadole Sapporo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.60, Consadole Sapporo 1.19 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo?
Saturday 26 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at Unilever Stadium Shintomi – J2 League.