- λ home
- 1.79
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.60
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.2%
Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu prediction & xG model: Omiya Ardija to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Omiya Ardija v Ventforet Kofu: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 5–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOmiya Ardija to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Omiya Ardija v Ventforet Kofu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omiya Ardija (home) | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.17 | 2.30 |
| Ventforet Kofu (away) | 1.22 | 0.70 | 0.95 | 0.81 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.41 × 1.17 ≈ 2.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.10 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.60 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.79, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Omiya Ardija | 70.1% | 64.0% | 58.3% | 61.6% |
| X Draw | 18.5% | 18.0% | 23.9% | 20.5% |
| 2 Ventforet Kofu | 11.4% | 18.0% | 17.8% | 17.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.072 → 7.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Omiya Ardija pick | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -1.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -20.1% | |
| 2 · Ventforet Kofu | 17.9% | 5.59 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -6.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.4% | |
| X2 | 38.4% | 2.60 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -11.7% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Omiya Ardija | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ventforet Kofu | 22.5% | 4.44 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +0.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.94 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -11.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 2.08 | 48.1% | +1.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -17.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -2.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 46.0% | 2.18 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -8.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.4% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.7% | 6.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.616 × 1.60 − 1 = -0.014 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDLDW | LLLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Omiya Ardija 62% to win. Standings: Omiya Ardija 1st on 33, Ventforet Kofu 20th on 12.
Form
Omiya Ardija have one win from their last six (D D D L D W). Latest: 1–1 away at Fujieda MYFC. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Ventforet Kofu: L L L W L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Kashima. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Omiya Ardija 0, Ventforet Kofu 2, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Apr 2026): Omiya Ardija 1–2 Ventforet Kofu. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Omiya Ardija 1.79 · Ventforet Kofu 0.82 · total 2.60. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Omiya Ardija to win, probability 62%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Omiya Ardija 1–0 Ventforet Kofu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Apr 2026Omiya Ardija1–2Ventforet Kofu
- 28 Mar 2026Ventforet Kofu2–1Omiya Ardija
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu?
The Model pick is Omiya Ardija to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Omiya Ardija v Ventforet Kofu probabilities?
Omiya Ardija win 62%, draw 20%, Ventforet Kofu win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu?
Omiya Ardija 1–0 Ventforet Kofu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu?
Omiya Ardija 1.79, Ventforet Kofu 0.82 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu?
Saturday 26 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at NACK5 Stadium Omiya – J2 League.