- λ home
- 1.70
- λ away
- 0.75
- Σλ total
- 2.44
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.7%
Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Jubilo Iwata v Vanraure Hachinohe: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Jubilo Iwata v Vanraure Hachinohe are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jubilo Iwata (home) | 1.40 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 1.39 |
| Vanraure Hachinohe (away) | 1.22 | 0.65 | 0.84 | 0.67 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 0.94 × 1.05 ≈ 1.39
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.06 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.44 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.70, λaway = 0.75
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jubilo Iwata | 53.2% | 64.0% | 60.7% | 62.6% |
| X Draw | 29.3% | 15.0% | 23.8% | 18.7% |
| 2 Vanraure Hachinohe | 17.6% | 21.0% | 15.5% | 18.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Jubilo Iwata | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.2% | |
| X · Draw | 18.7% | 5.35 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -27.1% | |
| 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe | 18.7% | 5.35 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +12.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -8.9% | |
| X2 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -11.0% | |
| 12 | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +1.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Jubilo Iwata | 77.0% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vanraure Hachinohe | 23.0% | 4.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | 1.40 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -7.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -2.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -8.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -12.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +4.9% | |
| BTTS no | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -17.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.0% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.9% | 6.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.524 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.049 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Jubilo Iwata | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWWD | LLDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 83% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Jubilo Iwata at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Jubilo Iwata 10th on 23, Vanraure Hachinohe 18th on 14.
Form
Jubilo Iwata, last six: L W L W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Albirex Niigata. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Vanraure Hachinohe: L L D L W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–3 at home to Tegevajaro Miyazaki. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.2 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Jubilo Iwata 1.70 · Vanraure Hachinohe 0.75 · total 2.44. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Jubilo Iwata 2–1 Vanraure Hachinohe. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Jubilo Iwata v Vanraure Hachinohe probabilities?
Jubilo Iwata win 63%, draw 19%, Vanraure Hachinohe win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
Jubilo Iwata 2–1 Vanraure Hachinohe is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
Jubilo Iwata 1.70, Vanraure Hachinohe 0.75 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
Saturday 26 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at Yamaha Stadium – J2 League.