- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.35
- Σλ total
- 2.72
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Tokushima Vortis vs Tochigi City prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tokushima Vortis v Tochigi City: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Tokushima Vortis v Tochigi City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (32 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokushima Vortis (home) | 1.40 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 1.55 |
| Tochigi City (away) | 1.22 | 1.21 | 0.85 | 1.26 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 0.83 × 1.33 ≈ 1.55
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.81 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.64 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.78 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.72 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.35
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tokushima Vortis | 43.3% | 41.0% | 36.4% | 39.1% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 18.0% | 29.9% | 23.0% |
| 2 Tochigi City | 30.6% | 41.0% | 33.7% | 37.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tokushima Vortis | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -0.4% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -28.7% | |
| 2 · Tochigi City | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +4.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -13.1% | |
| X2 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -8.6% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tokushima Vortis | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tochigi City | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -4.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.08 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.4% | 3.19 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -13.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.3% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.6% | 3.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.583 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tokushima Vortis | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWDW | LLDWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Tokushima Vortis 39%, draw 23%, Tochigi City 38%. Standings: Tokushima Vortis 16th on 17, Tochigi City 17th on 15.
Form
Tokushima Vortis have three wins from their last six (L W L W D W). Latest: 0–5 away at Gamba Osaka. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Tochigi City: L L D W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Machida Zelvia. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tokushima Vortis 1.37 · Tochigi City 1.35 · total 2.72. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Tokushima Vortis 2–1 Tochigi City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tokushima Vortis vs Tochigi City?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tokushima Vortis v Tochigi City probabilities?
Tokushima Vortis win 39%, draw 23%, Tochigi City win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Tokushima Vortis vs Tochigi City?
Tokushima Vortis 2–1 Tochigi City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tokushima Vortis vs Tochigi City?
Tokushima Vortis 1.37, Tochigi City 1.35 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Tokushima Vortis vs Tochigi City?
Saturday 26 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at Pocari Sweat Stadium – J2 League.