- λ home
- 0.89
- λ away
- 1.74
- Σλ total
- 2.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.6%
Ştefăneşti vs Unirea Slobozia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ştefăneşti 20% · draw 24% · Unirea Slobozia 56%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ştefăneşti v Unirea Slobozia: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ştefăneşti v Unirea Slobozia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ştefăneşti (home) | 1.61 | 0.65 | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Unirea Slobozia (away) | 1.24 | 0.97 | 1.42 | 1.71 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 0.65 × 0.81 ≈ 0.84
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.55 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.69 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.89, λaway = 1.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 57.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ştefăneşti | 18.0% | 18.0% | 21.8% | 19.6% |
| X Draw | 25.1% | 20.0% | 25.4% | 24.0% |
| 2 Unirea Slobozia | 56.9% | 62.0% | 52.9% | 56.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.081 → 8.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ştefăneşti | 19.6% | 5.10 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -16.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 3.65 | 27.4% | -12.4% | |
| 2 · Unirea Slobozia | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -1.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.6% | 2.29 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -10.6% | |
| X2 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -1.1% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ştefăneşti | 25.8% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Unirea Slobozia | 74.2% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -6.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -10.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -5.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.6% | 3.49 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -5.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +0.7% | |
| BTTS no | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -16.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.3% | 5.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.559 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.009 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ştefăneşti | Unirea Slobozia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLLLL | WWDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Unirea Slobozia narrowly ahead at 56%; Ştefăneşti 20%. Standings: Ştefăneşti 20th on 9, Unirea Slobozia 15th on 14.
Form
Ştefăneşti have one win from their last six (W L L L L L). Latest: 2–0 away at Viitorul Şelimbăr. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Unirea Slobozia have three wins from their last six (W W D L W L). Latest: 2–0 at home to CSM Satu Mare. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ştefăneşti 0.89 · Unirea Slobozia 1.74 · total 2.62. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Ştefăneşti 1–2 Unirea Slobozia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
More Liga II predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ştefăneşti vs Unirea Slobozia?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ştefăneşti v Unirea Slobozia probabilities?
Ştefăneşti win 20%, draw 24%, Unirea Slobozia win 56%.
What is the most probable score for Ştefăneşti vs Unirea Slobozia?
Ştefăneşti 1–2 Unirea Slobozia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ştefăneşti vs Unirea Slobozia?
Ştefăneşti 0.89, Unirea Slobozia 1.74 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Ştefăneşti vs Unirea Slobozia?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 10:00 WAT – Liga II.