- λ home
- 2.40
- λ away
- 0.81
- Σλ total
- 3.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.6%
Popești-Leordeni vs Viitorul Şelimbăr prediction & xG model: Popești-Leordeni to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Popești-Leordeni 68% · draw 20% · Viitorul Şelimbăr 11%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Popești-Leordeni v Viitorul Şelimbăr: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Popești-Leordeni v Viitorul Şelimbăr are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popești-Leordeni (home) | 1.61 | 1.44 | 1.12 | 2.60 |
| Viitorul Şelimbăr (away) | 1.24 | 0.61 | 1.03 | 0.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 1.44 × 1.12 ≈ 2.60
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.12 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.03 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.40, λaway = 0.81
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Popești-Leordeni | 75.6% | 69.0% | 61.7% | 68.3% |
| X Draw | 15.5% | 24.0% | 22.6% | 20.5% |
| 2 Viitorul Şelimbăr | 8.8% | 7.0% | 15.7% | 11.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.080 → 8.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Popești-Leordeni pick | 68.3% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 66.7% | +2.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.89 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -16.1% | |
| 2 · Viitorul Şelimbăr | 11.3% | 8.85 | 5.90 | 16.9% | -33.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.7% | 1.13 | 1.13 | 88.5% | +0.2% | |
| X2 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 2.57 | 38.9% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Popești-Leordeni | 85.8% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Viitorul Şelimbăr | 14.2% | 7.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 5.05 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -18.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -3.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | 2.52 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -10.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -4.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -7.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -5.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -9.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.5% | 8.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.683 × 1.50 − 1 = +0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.048 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Popești-Leordeni | Viitorul Şelimbăr |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWWL | LLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Popești-Leordeni at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Popești-Leordeni 4th on 27, Viitorul Şelimbăr 19th on 9.
Form
Sequence for Popești-Leordeni: L W W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–4 away at Chindia Targoviste. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Viitorul Şelimbăr have one win from their last six (L L W L L L). Latest: 0–2 at home to Ştefăneşti. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Popești-Leordeni 2.40 · Viitorul Şelimbăr 0.81 · total 3.21. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Model selection: Popești-Leordeni to win, probability 68%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Popești-Leordeni 2–0 Viitorul Şelimbăr. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
More Liga II predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Popești-Leordeni vs Viitorul Şelimbăr?
The Model pick is Popești-Leordeni to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Popești-Leordeni v Viitorul Şelimbăr probabilities?
Popești-Leordeni win 68%, draw 20%, Viitorul Şelimbăr win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Popești-Leordeni vs Viitorul Şelimbăr?
Popești-Leordeni 2–0 Viitorul Şelimbăr is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Popești-Leordeni vs Viitorul Şelimbăr?
Popești-Leordeni 2.40, Viitorul Şelimbăr 0.81 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Popești-Leordeni vs Viitorul Şelimbăr?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 10:00 WAT – Liga II.