- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 1.03
- Σλ total
- 2.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
CSM Reşiţa vs Metaloglobus prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: CSM Reşiţa 51% · draw 25% · Metaloglobus 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
CSM Reşiţa v Metaloglobus: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for CSM Reşiţa v Metaloglobus are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSM Reşiţa (home) | 1.61 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| Metaloglobus (away) | 1.24 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 1.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 0.85 × 0.88 ≈ 1.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.27 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 1.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 CSM Reşiţa | 38.2% | 74.0% | 48.7% | 50.9% |
| X Draw | 30.0% | 15.0% | 27.2% | 25.4% |
| 2 Metaloglobus | 31.8% | 11.0% | 24.0% | 23.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.080 → 8.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · CSM Reşiţa | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -3.3% | |
| X · Draw | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -13.7% | |
| 2 · Metaloglobus | 23.7% | 4.22 | 3.85 | 26.0% | -8.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -3.9% | |
| X2 | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -7.7% | |
| 12 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB CSM Reşiţa | 68.2% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Metaloglobus | 31.8% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.7% | 3.36 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -4.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -11.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -1.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.9% | 3.85 | 3.15 | 31.7% | -18.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -3.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.78 | 56.2% | +3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 41.9% | 2.39 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -19.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.8% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.5% | 4.45 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.581 × 1.78 − 1 = +0.034 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | CSM Reşiţa | Metaloglobus |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLLWW | WWWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
CSM Reşiţa ahead at 51%, against 24% for Metaloglobus and 25% for the draw. Standings: CSM Reşiţa 6th on 25, Metaloglobus 9th on 21.
Form
Sequence for CSM Reşiţa: D W L L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at FC Politehnica Timisoara. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Metaloglobus: W W W D L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Dumbrăviţa. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG CSM Reşiţa 1.39 · Metaloglobus 1.03 · total 2.42. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.78 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: CSM Reşiţa 2–1 Metaloglobus. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
More Liga II predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for CSM Reşiţa vs Metaloglobus?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.78 by the bookmakers.
What are the CSM Reşiţa v Metaloglobus probabilities?
CSM Reşiţa win 51%, draw 25%, Metaloglobus win 24%.
What is the most probable score for CSM Reşiţa vs Metaloglobus?
CSM Reşiţa 2–1 Metaloglobus is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for CSM Reşiţa vs Metaloglobus?
CSM Reşiţa 1.39, Metaloglobus 1.03 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is CSM Reşiţa vs Metaloglobus?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 10:00 WAT, at Mircea Chivu Stadium – Liga II.