- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.32
- Σλ total
- 2.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Cetatea Suceava vs FC Politehnica Timisoara prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cetatea Suceava 37% · draw 26% · FC Politehnica Timisoara 37%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cetatea Suceava v FC Politehnica Timisoara: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cetatea Suceava v FC Politehnica Timisoara are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cetatea Suceava (home) | 1.61 | 1.25 | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| FC Politehnica Timisoara (away) | 1.24 | 1.09 | 0.97 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 1.25 × 0.70 ≈ 1.40
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.71 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.48 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.32
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cetatea Suceava | 38.7% | 41.0% | 34.4% | 37.4% |
| X Draw | 27.0% | 18.0% | 28.5% | 25.5% |
| 2 FC Politehnica Timisoara | 34.4% | 41.0% | 37.1% | 37.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cetatea Suceava | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +1.0% | |
| X · Draw | 25.5% | 3.91 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -17.0% | |
| 2 · FC Politehnica Timisoara | 37.0% | 2.70 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -7.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.7% | |
| X2 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -8.0% | |
| 12 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cetatea Suceava | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Politehnica Timisoara | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 71.6% | 1.40 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -3.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -17.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -1.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -5.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -1.5% | |
| BTTS no | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.1% | 3.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.716 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cetatea Suceava | FC Politehnica Timisoara |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWWD | DDDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Cetatea Suceava 37%, draw 26%, FC Politehnica Timisoara 37%. Standings: Cetatea Suceava 8th on 22, FC Politehnica Timisoara 2nd on 29.
Form
Cetatea Suceava have three wins from their last six (L D W W W D). Latest: 1–3 away at Gloria Bistriţa. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Sequence for FC Politehnica Timisoara: D D D W W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to CSM Reşiţa. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cetatea Suceava 1.37 · FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.32 · total 2.68. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.40. Most probable score: Cetatea Suceava 2–1 FC Politehnica Timisoara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
More Liga II predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cetatea Suceava vs FC Politehnica Timisoara?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cetatea Suceava v FC Politehnica Timisoara probabilities?
Cetatea Suceava win 37%, draw 26%, FC Politehnica Timisoara win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Cetatea Suceava vs FC Politehnica Timisoara?
Cetatea Suceava 2–1 FC Politehnica Timisoara is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cetatea Suceava vs FC Politehnica Timisoara?
Cetatea Suceava 1.37, FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.32 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Cetatea Suceava vs FC Politehnica Timisoara?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 11:30 WAT – Liga II.