- λ home
- 1.69
- λ away
- 0.73
- Σλ total
- 2.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.1%
Kahraba Ismailia vs Mega Sport prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Kahraba Ismailia v Mega Sport: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kahraba Ismailia v Mega Sport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (24 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahraba Ismailia (home) | 1.66 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| Mega Sport (away) | 1.38 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.05 × 1.15 ≈ 2.00
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.72 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.42 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.69, λaway = 0.73
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kahraba Ismailia | 66.5% | 61.0% | 63.9% | 62.2% |
| X Draw | 21.2% | 17.0% | 24.9% | 20.3% |
| 2 Mega Sport | 12.3% | 22.0% | 11.2% | 17.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kahraba Ismailia | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -12.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.3% | 4.93 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -26.9% | |
| 2 · Mega Sport | 17.5% | 5.73 | 8.00 | 12.5% | +39.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -11.7% | |
| X2 | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -1.1% | |
| 12 | 79.7% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kahraba Ismailia | 78.1% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mega Sport | 21.9% | 4.56 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.6% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 4.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +14.2% | |
| BTTS no | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -22.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.3% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.5% | 6.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.508 × 2.25 − 1 = +0.142 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.114 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kahraba Ismailia | Mega Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWD | LLLLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kahraba Ismailia at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Kahraba Ismailia 5th on 21, Mega Sport 19th on 7.
Form
Kahraba Ismailia, last six: W W W L W D – four wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Pharco. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Mega Sport have zero wins from their last six (L L L L D D). Latest: 2–3 at home to Ismaily SC. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kahraba Ismailia 1.69 · Mega Sport 0.73 · total 2.42. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.25 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: Kahraba Ismailia 2–1 Mega Sport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kahraba Ismailia vs Mega Sport?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kahraba Ismailia v Mega Sport probabilities?
Kahraba Ismailia win 62%, draw 20%, Mega Sport win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Kahraba Ismailia vs Mega Sport?
Kahraba Ismailia 2–1 Mega Sport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kahraba Ismailia vs Mega Sport?
Kahraba Ismailia 1.69, Mega Sport 0.73 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Kahraba Ismailia vs Mega Sport?
Friday 2 October 2026, 13:30 WAT – Second League.