- λ home
- 0.85
- λ away
- 0.98
- Σλ total
- 1.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 28%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 0–0 16.0%
Proxy vs Itesalat prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Proxy v Itesalat: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Proxy v Itesalat are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proxy (home) | 1.66 | 0.84 | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| Itesalat (away) | 1.38 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.23 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.84 × 0.93 ≈ 1.29
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.51 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.83 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.85, λaway = 0.98
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 32.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 16.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Proxy | 37.3% | 35.0% | 30.6% | 33.2% |
| X Draw | 28.2% | 21.0% | 35.5% | 27.1% |
| 2 Itesalat | 34.5% | 44.0% | 33.9% | 39.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.127 → 12.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Proxy | 33.2% | 3.02 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -3.8% | |
| X · Draw | 27.1% | 3.69 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -32.3% | |
| 2 · Itesalat | 39.8% | 2.52 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +4.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -13.2% | |
| X2 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.1% | |
| 12 | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.44 | 69.4% | +5.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Proxy | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Itesalat | 54.5% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 27.7% | 3.60 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 11.4% | 8.80 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.4% | 2.02 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +8.7% | |
| BTTS no pick | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -18.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.0% | 4.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 52.2% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.8% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.506 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.180 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Proxy | Itesalat |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLL | WLWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 83% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 33 / 27 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Proxy 17th on 11, Itesalat 8th on 19.
Form
Proxy, last six: L L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Masar. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Sequence for Itesalat: W L W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to La Viena FC. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Proxy 0.85 · Itesalat 0.98 · total 1.83. Low total: under 2.5 72%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.98. Most probable score: Proxy 0–1 Itesalat. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Proxy vs Itesalat?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Proxy v Itesalat probabilities?
Proxy win 33%, draw 27%, Itesalat win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Proxy vs Itesalat?
Proxy 0–1 Itesalat is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Proxy vs Itesalat?
Proxy 0.85, Itesalat 0.98 – over 2.5 at 28%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Proxy vs Itesalat?
Friday 2 October 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Proxy Club Stadium – Second League.