- λ home
- 0.64
- λ away
- 0.94
- Σλ total
- 1.58
- P(over 2.5)
- 21%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 0–0 20.6%
El Dakhleya vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
El Dakhleya v Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for El Dakhleya v Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (24 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Dakhleya (home) | 1.66 | 0.69 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat (away) | 1.38 | 0.80 | 0.98 | 1.08 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.69 × 0.59 ≈ 0.67
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.75 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.58 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.58 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.64, λaway = 0.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 24.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 35.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.0%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 20.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 El Dakhleya | 22.0% | 30.0% | 26.4% | 28.5% |
| X Draw | 34.2% | 20.0% | 34.5% | 26.1% |
| 2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 43.8% | 50.0% | 39.0% | 45.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.114 → 11.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · El Dakhleya | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -3.1% | |
| X · Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +4.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -15.4% | |
| X2 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -7.8% | |
| 12 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.44 | 69.4% | +6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB El Dakhleya | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 61.4% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 21.1% | 4.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 7.6% | 13.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 92.4% | 1.08 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.40 | 41.7% | +10.6% | |
| BTTS no pick | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -19.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.2% | 5.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 55.9% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.539 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.191 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | El Dakhleya | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDDD | WWWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat narrowly ahead at 45%; El Dakhleya 28%. Standings: El Dakhleya 16th on 11, Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1st on 24.
Form
Sequence for El Dakhleya: W L L D D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Team. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat: W W W D D W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to El Mansura. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): El Dakhleya 2–0 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG El Dakhleya 0.64 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0.94 · total 1.58. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 79%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: El Dakhleya 0–1 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 Apr 2026El Dakhleya2–0Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for El Dakhleya vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the El Dakhleya v Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat probabilities?
El Dakhleya win 28%, draw 26%, Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 45%.
What is the most probable score for El Dakhleya vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat?
El Dakhleya 0–1 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for El Dakhleya vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat?
El Dakhleya 0.64, Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0.94 – over 2.5 at 21%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is El Dakhleya vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat?
Friday 2 October 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Police Academy Stadium – Second League.