- λ home
- 0.72
- λ away
- 1.86
- Σλ total
- 2.58
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.1%
Dayrout vs Ismaily SC prediction & xG model: Ismaily SC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Dayrout v Ismaily SC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipIsmaily SC to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Dayrout v Ismaily SC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayrout (home) | 1.66 | 0.59 | 0.90 | 0.88 |
| Ismaily SC (away) | 1.38 | 0.78 | 1.06 | 1.14 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.59 × 0.90 ≈ 0.88
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.02 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.58 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.58 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.72, λaway = 1.86
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 64.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dayrout | 27.6% | 8.0% | 19.4% | 12.8% |
| X Draw | 31.9% | 18.0% | 30.8% | 23.4% |
| 2 Ismaily SC | 40.5% | 74.0% | 49.7% | 63.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Dayrout | 12.8% | 7.81 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -41.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.4% | 4.27 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · Ismaily SC pick | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +14.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.2% | 2.76 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -30.8% | |
| X2 | 87.2% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +2.0% | |
| 12 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.35 | 74.1% | +3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Dayrout | 16.7% | 5.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ismaily SC | 83.3% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.1% | 3.69 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.0% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.1% | 2.04 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +10.5% | |
| BTTS no | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.4% | 7.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.6% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.638 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.148 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.185 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Dayrout | Ismaily SC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLLL | WLDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 0% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 100% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ismaily SC favoured on the road at 64% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Dayrout 20th on 7, Ismaily SC 13th on 13.
Form
Dayrout, last six: D L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Haras El Hodood. Only 0.0 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Ismaily SC: W L D D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 3–2 away at Mega Sport. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Dayrout 0.72 · Ismaily SC 1.86 · total 2.58. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ismaily SC to win, probability 64%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Dayrout 0–1 Ismaily SC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Dayrout vs Ismaily SC?
The Model pick is Ismaily SC to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Dayrout v Ismaily SC probabilities?
Dayrout win 13%, draw 23%, Ismaily SC win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Dayrout vs Ismaily SC?
Dayrout 0–1 Ismaily SC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Dayrout vs Ismaily SC?
Dayrout 0.72, Ismaily SC 1.86 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Dayrout vs Ismaily SC?
Friday 2 October 2026, 13:30 WAT – Second League.