- λ home
- 1.36
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 2.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Stevenage v Mansfield Town: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Stevenage v Mansfield Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.72 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.36, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Stevenage | – | 42.0% | 40.6% | 41.4% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.3% | 22.3% |
| 2 Mansfield Town | – | 40.0% | 31.1% | 36.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.071 → 7.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Stevenage | 41.4% | 2.41 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -4.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -26.3% | |
| 2 · Mansfield Town | 36.3% | 2.76 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +8.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.3% | |
| X2 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -8.0% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Stevenage | 53.3% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mansfield Town | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.1% | 3.69 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -7.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -3.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -7.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS no | 43.0% | 2.33 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -16.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.0% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.733 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Stevenage | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDLWL | LWDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Stevenage 41%, draw 22%, Mansfield Town 36%. Standings: Stevenage 16th on 16, Mansfield Town 11th on 19.
Form
Sequence for Stevenage: D W D L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Fulham U21. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Mansfield Town: L W D L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–5 at home to Chesterfield. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Stevenage 1.36 · Mansfield Town 1.25 · total 2.61. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.36. Most probable score: Stevenage 1–0 Mansfield Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Stevenage v Mansfield Town probabilities?
Stevenage win 41%, draw 22%, Mansfield Town win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Stevenage 1–0 Mansfield Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Stevenage 1.36, Mansfield Town 1.25 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Broadhall Way – League One.