- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 1.33
- Σλ total
- 2.95
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.3%
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sheffield Wednesday 46% · draw 21% · Plymouth 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.06 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.95 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 1.33
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sheffield Wednesday | – | 50.0% | 40.3% | 45.9% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.5% | 21.0% |
| 2 Plymouth | – | 33.0% | 33.1% | 33.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sheffield Wednesday | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.0% | 4.76 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -26.5% | |
| 2 · Plymouth | 33.1% | 3.02 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -7.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.9% | 1.49 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -6.3% | |
| X2 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -15.1% | |
| 12 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sheffield Wednesday | 58.2% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Plymouth | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.04 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -0.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -12.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 35.5% | 2.81 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -11.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.0% | 3.84 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.645 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sheffield Wednesday | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDDLL | WWDWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Sheffield Wednesday 46%, draw 21%, Plymouth 33%. Standings: Sheffield Wednesday 9th on 20, Plymouth 5th on 23.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday have zero wins from their last six (L D D D L L). Latest: 0–4 at home to Accrington ST. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Plymouth: W W D W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Swindon Town. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.62 · Plymouth 1.33 · total 2.95. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Plymouth. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth probabilities?
Sheffield Wednesday win 46%, draw 21%, Plymouth win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Plymouth is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Sheffield Wednesday 1.62, Plymouth 1.33 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Hillsborough Stadium – League One.