- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 0.92
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.2%
Leicester vs Bradford prediction & xG model: Leicester to win
Leicester v Bradford: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Leicester v Bradford are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester (home) | 1.66 | 1.41 | 0.46 | 1.08 |
| Bradford (away) | 1.38 | 1.25 | 0.82 | 1.41 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.41 × 0.46 ≈ 1.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.49 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.27 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 0.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Leicester | 28.1% | 64.0% | 50.5% | 58.3% |
| X Draw | 28.0% | 16.0% | 25.3% | 19.9% |
| 2 Bradford | 43.9% | 20.0% | 24.2% | 21.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.100 → 10.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Leicester pick | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +5.0% | |
| X · Draw | 19.9% | 5.03 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -28.4% | |
| 2 · Bradford | 21.8% | 4.59 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -18.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.6% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -23.7% | |
| 12 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Leicester | 72.8% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bradford | 27.2% | 3.68 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -8.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.7% | 4.22 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +2.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.87 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -12.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.17 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -17.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -1.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -7.0% | |
| BTTS no | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -6.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.9% | 5.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.583 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.050 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.062 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Leicester | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWLW | WWLWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Leicester ahead at 58%, against 22% for Bradford and 20% for the draw. Standings: Leicester 11th on 19, Bradford 8th on 22.
Form
Leicester have four wins from their last six (W W D W L W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Walsall. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Bradford: W W L W D D, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–0 at home to York. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Leicester 1.73 · Bradford 0.92 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Leicester to win, probability 58%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Leicester 1–0 Bradford. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 14 | +11 | 23 |
| 6 |  Plymouth | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 7 |  Reading | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 10 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 12 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  AFC Wimbledon | 14 | -11 | 16 |
| 18 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wigan | 15 | -10 | 14 |
| 20 |  Blackpool | 13 | -5 | 12 |
| 21 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 13 | -11 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Leicester vs Bradford?
The Model pick is Leicester to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Leicester v Bradford probabilities?
Leicester win 58%, draw 20%, Bradford win 22%.
What is the most probable score for Leicester vs Bradford?
Leicester 1–0 Bradford is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Leicester vs Bradford?
Leicester 1.73, Bradford 0.92 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Leicester vs Bradford?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at King Power Stadium – League One.