- λ home
- 0.92
- λ away
- 1.92
- Σλ total
- 2.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.3%
Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United prediction & xG model: Kagoshima United to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sagamihara v Kagoshima United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipKagoshima United to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Sagamihara v Kagoshima United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagamihara (home) | 1.52 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| Kagoshima United (away) | 1.23 | 1.23 | 0.76 | 1.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.06 × 0.92 ≈ 1.48
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.90 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.77 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.92, λaway = 1.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sagamihara | 44.1% | 11.0% | 23.1% | 16.1% |
| X Draw | 27.1% | 24.0% | 25.2% | 24.5% |
| 2 Kagoshima United | 28.9% | 65.0% | 51.8% | 59.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sagamihara | 16.1% | 6.22 | 3.86 | 25.9% | -38.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -13.3% | |
| 2 · Kagoshima United pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.72 | 58.1% | +2.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.6% | 2.47 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -24.6% | |
| X2 | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -2.6% | |
| 12 | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -10.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sagamihara | 21.3% | 4.70 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kagoshima United | 78.7% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -7.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -14.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -7.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -9.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.81 | 35.6% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -9.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -4.6% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.7% | 6.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.72 − 1 = +0.022 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.031 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sagamihara | Kagoshima United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDLWW | DDLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 16%. Standings: Sagamihara 4th on 31, Kagoshima United 3rd on 31.
Form
Sagamihara, last six: W W D L W W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Gainare Tottori. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Kagoshima United: D D L W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Renofa Yamaguchi. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sagamihara 0.92 · Kagoshima United 1.92 · total 2.83. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Kagoshima United to win, probability 59%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Sagamihara 0–1 Kagoshima United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?
The Model pick is Kagoshima United to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.72 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sagamihara v Kagoshima United probabilities?
Sagamihara win 16%, draw 24%, Kagoshima United win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?
Sagamihara 0–1 Kagoshima United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?
Sagamihara 0.92, Kagoshima United 1.92 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Sagamihara Gion Stadium – J3 League.