- λ home
- 1.30
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 2.37
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Roasso Kumamoto v Renofa Yamaguchi: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Roasso Kumamoto v Renofa Yamaguchi are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasso Kumamoto (home) | 1.52 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi (away) | 1.23 | 1.03 | 0.69 | 0.88 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.90 × 0.70 ≈ 0.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.83 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.93 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.74 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.37 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.30, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Roasso Kumamoto | 34.7% | 47.0% | 41.2% | 44.6% |
| X Draw | 34.2% | 18.0% | 28.4% | 22.4% |
| 2 Renofa Yamaguchi | 31.1% | 35.0% | 30.4% | 33.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Roasso Kumamoto | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -3.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -29.8% | |
| 2 · Renofa Yamaguchi | 33.1% | 3.02 | 2.93 | 34.1% | -3.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.9% | 1.49 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -14.3% | |
| X2 | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -15.8% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Roasso Kumamoto | 57.4% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Renofa Yamaguchi | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -13.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.48 | 28.7% | +0.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -16.6% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.89 | 52.9% | +0.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.7% | 3.74 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -24.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -2.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -9.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.8% | 4.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.531 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.005 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Roasso Kumamoto | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWWL | DLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Roasso Kumamoto 45%, draw 22%, Renofa Yamaguchi 33%. Standings: Roasso Kumamoto 8th on 24, Renofa Yamaguchi 5th on 30.
Form
Roasso Kumamoto have three wins from their last six (L D W W W L). Latest: 1–2 away at Osaka. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Renofa Yamaguchi have three wins from their last six (D L W L W W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Kagoshima United. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Roasso Kumamoto 1.30 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1.07 · total 2.37. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Roasso Kumamoto 1–0 Renofa Yamaguchi. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.89 by the bookmakers.
What are the Roasso Kumamoto v Renofa Yamaguchi probabilities?
Roasso Kumamoto win 45%, draw 22%, Renofa Yamaguchi win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Roasso Kumamoto 1–0 Renofa Yamaguchi is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Roasso Kumamoto 1.30, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.07 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Egao Kenko Stadium – J3 League.