- λ home
- 1.49
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Parceiro Nagano vs Kamatamare Sanuki prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Parceiro Nagano v Kamatamare Sanuki: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Parceiro Nagano v Kamatamare Sanuki are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parceiro Nagano (home) | 1.52 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.74 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (away) | 1.23 | 0.83 | 0.97 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.00 × 1.14 ≈ 1.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.74 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.49, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Parceiro Nagano | 53.9% | 50.0% | 41.3% | 46.3% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 18.0% | 28.4% | 22.4% |
| 2 Kamatamare Sanuki | 21.2% | 32.0% | 30.3% | 31.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Parceiro Nagano | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.16 | 46.3% | +0.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -29.8% | |
| 2 · Kamatamare Sanuki | 31.3% | 3.20 | 2.94 | 34.0% | -8.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -12.1% | |
| X2 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Parceiro Nagano | 59.7% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kamatamare Sanuki | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.6% | 3.63 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -15.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -4.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -11.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -6.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -10.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 40.4% | 2.47 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -24.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.4% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.596 × 1.77 − 1 = +0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.071 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Parceiro Nagano | Kamatamare Sanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLWW | WLLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Parceiro Nagano 46%, draw 22%, Kamatamare Sanuki 31%. Standings: Parceiro Nagano 10th on 23, Kamatamare Sanuki 18th on 14.
Form
Parceiro Nagano have four wins from their last six (W W L L W W). Latest: 2–0 away at Kanazawa. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Kamatamare Sanuki: W L L W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Matsumoto Yamaga. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Parceiro Nagano 1.49 · Kamatamare Sanuki 1.17 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Kamatamare Sanuki. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Parceiro Nagano vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Parceiro Nagano v Kamatamare Sanuki probabilities?
Parceiro Nagano win 46%, draw 22%, Kamatamare Sanuki win 31%.
What is the most probable score for Parceiro Nagano vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Kamatamare Sanuki is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Parceiro Nagano vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
Parceiro Nagano 1.49, Kamatamare Sanuki 1.17 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Parceiro Nagano vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Nagano U Stadium – J3 League.