- λ home
- 1.12
- λ away
- 1.45
- Σλ total
- 2.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
Gainare Tottori vs Tochigi SC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Gainare Tottori v Tochigi SC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Gainare Tottori v Tochigi SC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori (home) | 1.52 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| Tochigi SC (away) | 1.23 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 1.13 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.74 × 0.74 ≈ 0.83
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.96 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.47 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.66 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.12, λaway = 1.45
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gainare Tottori | 26.0% | 32.0% | 30.2% | 31.2% |
| X Draw | 32.4% | 18.0% | 28.4% | 22.4% |
| 2 Tochigi SC | 41.6% | 50.0% | 41.4% | 46.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gainare Tottori | 31.2% | 3.20 | 2.95 | 33.9% | -7.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -29.8% | |
| 2 · Tochigi SC | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -0.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -18.0% | |
| X2 | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -12.0% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gainare Tottori | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tochigi SC | 59.8% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -9.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -10.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -6.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.6% | 3.63 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -15.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.4% | |
| BTTS no | 41.6% | 2.41 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.8% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.584 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gainare Tottori | Tochigi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLDL | DWDWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 46% against 31%. Standings: Gainare Tottori 17th on 15, Tochigi SC 14th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Gainare Tottori: L L D L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Sagamihara. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Tochigi SC have two wins from their last six (D W D W L L). Latest: 0–0 at home to Fukushima United. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gainare Tottori 1.12 · Tochigi SC 1.45 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Gainare Tottori 1–2 Tochigi SC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gainare Tottori vs Tochigi SC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gainare Tottori v Tochigi SC probabilities?
Gainare Tottori win 31%, draw 22%, Tochigi SC win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Gainare Tottori vs Tochigi SC?
Gainare Tottori 1–2 Tochigi SC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gainare Tottori vs Tochigi SC?
Gainare Tottori 1.12, Tochigi SC 1.45 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Gainare Tottori vs Tochigi SC?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Axis Bird Stadium – J3 League.