- λ home
- 1.33
- λ away
- 1.63
- Σλ total
- 2.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
Biwako Shiga vs Kanazawa prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Biwako Shiga v Kanazawa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Biwako Shiga v Kanazawa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biwako Shiga (home) | 1.52 | 0.88 | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| Kanazawa (away) | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.72 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.88 × 0.95 ≈ 1.27
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.99 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.96 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.33, λaway = 1.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Biwako Shiga | 27.8% | 33.0% | 31.5% | 32.4% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 18.0% | 28.4% | 22.4% |
| 2 Kanazawa | 47.4% | 49.0% | 40.1% | 45.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.134 → 13.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Biwako Shiga | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -9.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Kanazawa | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -0.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -15.1% | |
| X2 | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.0% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Biwako Shiga | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kanazawa | 58.3% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.87 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 2.91 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -3.2% | |
| BTTS no | 37.5% | 2.66 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -15.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.1% | 3.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.625 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Biwako Shiga | Kanazawa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDDLW | LLDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kanazawa narrowly ahead at 45%; Biwako Shiga 32%. Standings: Biwako Shiga 16th on 17, Kanazawa 9th on 23.
Form
Biwako Shiga have one win from their last six (L L D D L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Tochigi SC. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Kanazawa, last six: L L D W L W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Kamatamare Sanuki. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Biwako Shiga 1.33 · Kanazawa 1.63 · total 2.96. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Biwako Shiga 1–2 Kanazawa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Biwako Shiga vs Kanazawa?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Biwako Shiga v Kanazawa probabilities?
Biwako Shiga win 32%, draw 22%, Kanazawa win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Biwako Shiga vs Kanazawa?
Biwako Shiga 1–2 Kanazawa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Biwako Shiga vs Kanazawa?
Biwako Shiga 1.33, Kanazawa 1.63 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Biwako Shiga vs Kanazawa?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Heiwado HATO Stadium – J3 League.