- λ home
- 1.19
- λ away
- 1.02
- Σλ total
- 2.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 38%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.3%
Roasso Kumamoto vs FC Gifu prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Roasso Kumamoto v FC Gifu: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Roasso Kumamoto v FC Gifu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasso Kumamoto (home) | 1.52 | 0.90 | 0.74 | 1.00 |
| FC Gifu (away) | 1.23 | 1.14 | 0.69 | 0.97 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.90 × 0.74 ≈ 1.00
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.98 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.21 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.19, λaway = 1.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Roasso Kumamoto | 34.4% | 45.0% | 39.7% | 42.8% |
| X Draw | 32.7% | 18.0% | 30.1% | 23.1% |
| 2 FC Gifu | 32.8% | 37.0% | 30.1% | 34.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.144 → 14.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Roasso Kumamoto | 42.8% | 2.34 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.33 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -33.0% | |
| 2 · FC Gifu | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -1.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.4% | |
| X2 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -12.5% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Roasso Kumamoto | 55.6% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Gifu | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 5.48 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.8% | |
| BTTS no | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.552 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.078 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Roasso Kumamoto | FC Gifu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDLW | WWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Roasso Kumamoto ahead at 43%, against 34% for FC Gifu and 23% for the draw. Standings: Roasso Kumamoto 8th on 24, FC Gifu 1st on 32.
Form
Sequence for Roasso Kumamoto: W W L D L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Gainare Tottori. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
FC Gifu, last six: W W W L L W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Sagamihara. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Roasso Kumamoto 1.19 · FC Gifu 1.02 · total 2.21. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 38%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.81. Most probable score: Roasso Kumamoto 2–1 FC Gifu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Roasso Kumamoto vs FC Gifu?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Roasso Kumamoto v FC Gifu probabilities?
Roasso Kumamoto win 43%, draw 23%, FC Gifu win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Roasso Kumamoto vs FC Gifu?
Roasso Kumamoto 2–1 FC Gifu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Roasso Kumamoto vs FC Gifu?
Roasso Kumamoto 1.19, FC Gifu 1.02 – over 2.5 at 38%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Roasso Kumamoto vs FC Gifu?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Egao Kenko Stadium – J3 League.