- λ home
- 1.66
- λ away
- 1.22
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
Gainare Tottori vs Kochi United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Gainare Tottori v Kochi United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Gainare Tottori v Kochi United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori (home) | 1.52 | 0.74 | 1.46 | 1.64 |
| Kochi United (away) | 1.23 | 0.65 | 1.29 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.74 × 1.46 ≈ 1.64
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.67 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.66, λaway = 1.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 47.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gainare Tottori | 50.8% | 55.0% | 40.1% | 48.7% |
| X Draw | 25.9% | 18.0% | 28.4% | 22.4% |
| 2 Kochi United | 23.3% | 27.0% | 31.5% | 28.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.134 → 13.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gainare Tottori | 48.7% | 2.05 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Kochi United | 28.9% | 3.46 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -19.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -3.3% | |
| X2 | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -20.5% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gainare Tottori | 62.8% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kochi United | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -16.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.9% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.7% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.637 × 1.53 − 1 = -0.025 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gainare Tottori | Kochi United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLDW | LLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Gainare Tottori ahead at 49%, against 29% for Kochi United and 22% for the draw. Standings: Gainare Tottori 17th on 15, Kochi United 20th on 9.
Form
Gainare Tottori have one win from their last six (L D L L D W). Latest: 0–3 away at Roasso Kumamoto. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Kochi United: L L L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Kagoshima United. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gainare Tottori 1.66 · Kochi United 1.22 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Gainare Tottori 2–1 Kochi United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gainare Tottori vs Kochi United?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gainare Tottori v Kochi United probabilities?
Gainare Tottori win 49%, draw 22%, Kochi United win 29%.
What is the most probable score for Gainare Tottori vs Kochi United?
Gainare Tottori 2–1 Kochi United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gainare Tottori vs Kochi United?
Gainare Tottori 1.66, Kochi United 1.22 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Gainare Tottori vs Kochi United?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Axis Bird Stadium – J3 League.