- λ home
- 1.54
- λ away
- 1.34
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.6%
Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kitakyushu v Parceiro Nagano: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Kitakyushu v Parceiro Nagano are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu (home) | 1.52 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.56 |
| Parceiro Nagano (away) | 1.23 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.36 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.05 × 0.97 ≈ 1.56
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.91 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.54, λaway = 1.34
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kitakyushu | 41.5% | 45.0% | 42.0% | 43.7% |
| X Draw | 25.7% | 17.0% | 27.6% | 21.4% |
| 2 Parceiro Nagano | 32.8% | 38.0% | 30.4% | 34.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.134 → 13.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kitakyushu | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.66 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -31.4% | |
| 2 · Parceiro Nagano | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.90 | 34.5% | +1.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -12.0% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.9% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kitakyushu | 55.7% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Parceiro Nagano | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS no | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -21.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.4% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.0% | 3.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.633 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.042 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kitakyushu | Parceiro Nagano |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWLD | LWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Kitakyushu 44%, draw 21%, Parceiro Nagano 35%. Standings: Kitakyushu 12th on 22, Parceiro Nagano 10th on 23.
Form
Sequence for Kitakyushu: L W L W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Fukushima United. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Parceiro Nagano: L W W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to FC Ryukyu. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kitakyushu 1.54 · Parceiro Nagano 1.34 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Kitakyushu 2–1 Parceiro Nagano. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kitakyushu v Parceiro Nagano probabilities?
Kitakyushu win 44%, draw 21%, Parceiro Nagano win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?
Kitakyushu 2–1 Parceiro Nagano is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?
Kitakyushu 1.54, Parceiro Nagano 1.34 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu – J3 League.