- λ home
- 1.77
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.1%
Tochigi SC vs Biwako Shiga prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC (home) | 1.52 | 0.71 | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Biwako Shiga (away) | 1.23 | 0.88 | 0.74 | 0.80 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.71 × 1.17 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.06 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.77 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.77, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tochigi SC | 46.3% | 62.0% | 46.3% | 55.4% |
| X Draw | 30.8% | 21.0% | 27.7% | 23.8% |
| 2 Biwako Shiga | 22.9% | 17.0% | 26.0% | 20.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.130 → 13.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tochigi SC | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +5.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -23.9% | |
| 2 · Biwako Shiga | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -29.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.0% | |
| X2 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -22.0% | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tochigi SC | 72.7% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Biwako Shiga | 27.3% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +1.0% | |
| BTTS no | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -19.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.0% | 5.27 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.605 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.010 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.015 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tochigi SC | Biwako Shiga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLLD | LDDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Tochigi SC 55%, draw 24%, Biwako Shiga 21%. Standings: Tochigi SC 14th on 21, Biwako Shiga 16th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Tochigi SC: L L D L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at FC Ryukyu. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Biwako Shiga, last six: L D D L W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Sagamihara. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tochigi SC 1.77 · Biwako Shiga 1.00 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Tochigi SC 2–1 Biwako Shiga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tochigi SC vs Biwako Shiga?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga probabilities?
Tochigi SC win 55%, draw 24%, Biwako Shiga win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Tochigi SC vs Biwako Shiga?
Tochigi SC 2–1 Biwako Shiga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tochigi SC vs Biwako Shiga?
Tochigi SC 1.77, Biwako Shiga 1.00 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Tochigi SC vs Biwako Shiga?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Kanseki Stadium Tochigi – J3 League.