- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 1.35
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ehime FC v Renofa Yamaguchi: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ehime FC v Renofa Yamaguchi are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ehime FC (home) | 1.52 | 1.21 | 0.70 | 1.28 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi (away) | 1.23 | 1.03 | 1.18 | 1.50 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.21 × 0.70 ≈ 1.28
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.79 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.86 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 1.35
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ehime FC | 31.9% | 44.0% | 39.5% | 42.1% |
| X Draw | 26.4% | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 Renofa Yamaguchi | 41.7% | 38.0% | 31.8% | 35.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ehime FC | 42.1% | 2.37 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Renofa Yamaguchi | 35.4% | 2.83 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -0.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -12.1% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -9.1% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ehime FC | 54.3% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Renofa Yamaguchi | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -1.3% | |
| BTTS no | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -16.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.7% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.5% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.629 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.013 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ehime FC | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLDW | WWWDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 42 / 22 / 35% for home, draw, away. Standings: Ehime FC 7th on 29, Renofa Yamaguchi 5th on 30.
Form
Ehime FC have three wins from their last six (L W W L D W). Latest: 2–4 away at Kagoshima United. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Renofa Yamaguchi, last six: W W W D W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Kochi United. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ehime FC 1.51 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1.35 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Ehime FC 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ehime FC v Renofa Yamaguchi probabilities?
Ehime FC win 42%, draw 22%, Renofa Yamaguchi win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Ehime FC 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Ehime FC 1.51, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.35 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Ningineer Stadium – J3 League.