- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 1.72
- Σλ total
- 3.64
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 1–1 8.7%
Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Fukushima United v Kitakyushu: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Fukushima United v Kitakyushu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fukushima United (home) | 1.52 | 1.31 | 1.10 | 2.19 |
| Kitakyushu (away) | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.27 | 1.64 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.31 × 1.10 ≈ 2.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.83 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.64 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.64 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 1.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 8.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fukushima United | 49.9% | 45.0% | 42.9% | 44.1% |
| X Draw | 21.2% | 16.0% | 25.1% | 19.8% |
| 2 Kitakyushu | 28.9% | 39.0% | 32.0% | 36.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.137 → 13.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Fukushima United | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -9.6% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.04 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Kitakyushu | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -0.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.0% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -9.5% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Fukushima United | 55.0% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kitakyushu | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.8% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.2% | 8.21 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -17.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.9% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.3% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.8% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.672 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Fukushima United | Kitakyushu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLWL | WLWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Fukushima United ahead at 44%, against 36% for Kitakyushu and 20% for the draw. Standings: Fukushima United 13th on 21, Kitakyushu 12th on 22.
Form
Fukushima United, last six: L D L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at FC Gifu. Per match: 1.5 scored, 3.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Kitakyushu, last six: W L W L D W – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Osaka. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Fukushima United 1.92 · Kitakyushu 1.72 · total 3.64. Goals expected – 70% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Fukushima United 2–1 Kitakyushu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Fukushima United v Kitakyushu probabilities?
Fukushima United win 44%, draw 20%, Kitakyushu win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
Fukushima United 2–1 Kitakyushu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
Fukushima United 1.92, Kitakyushu 1.72 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Toho – J3 League.