- λ home
- 1.81
- λ away
- 1.05
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.9%
FC Gifu vs Sagamihara prediction & xG model: FC Gifu to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC Gifu v Sagamihara: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Gifu to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Gifu v Sagamihara are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Gifu (home) | 1.52 | 1.14 | 0.76 | 1.31 |
| Sagamihara (away) | 1.23 | 1.06 | 0.74 | 0.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.14 × 0.76 ≈ 1.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.27 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.86 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.81, λaway = 1.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Gifu | 43.7% | 64.0% | 46.3% | 56.6% |
| X Draw | 29.5% | 15.0% | 27.7% | 20.3% |
| 2 Sagamihara | 26.8% | 21.0% | 26.0% | 23.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.130 → 13.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Gifu pick | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.3% | 4.92 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -35.0% | |
| 2 · Sagamihara | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -21.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -0.8% | |
| X2 | 43.4% | 2.30 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -24.0% | |
| 12 | 79.7% | 1.25 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Gifu | 71.0% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sagamihara | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -6.0% | |
| BTTS no | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -11.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.7% | 5.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.566 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.089 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Gifu | Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLWL | WWWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: FC Gifu 57%, draw 20%, Sagamihara 23%. Standings: FC Gifu 1st on 32, Sagamihara 4th on 31.
Form
FC Gifu, last six: W W L L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Fukushima United. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Sagamihara: W W W D L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Biwako Shiga. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Gifu 1.81 · Sagamihara 1.05 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Gifu to win, probability 57%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: FC Gifu 1–0 Sagamihara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?
The Model pick is FC Gifu to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Gifu v Sagamihara probabilities?
FC Gifu win 57%, draw 20%, Sagamihara win 23%.
What is the most probable score for FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?
FC Gifu 1–0 Sagamihara is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?
FC Gifu 1.81, Sagamihara 1.05 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Gifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field – J3 League.