- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 0.69
- Σλ total
- 2.56
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.4%
Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd prediction & xG model: Vojvodina to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Vojvodina v IMT Novi Beograd: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipVojvodina to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Vojvodina v IMT Novi Beograd are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vojvodina (home) | 1.66 | 1.27 | 0.62 | 1.31 |
| IMT Novi Beograd (away) | 1.38 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.27 × 0.62 ≈ 1.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.05 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.56 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.56 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 0.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vojvodina | 49.1% | 71.0% | 53.7% | 63.7% |
| X Draw | 30.3% | 24.0% | 25.6% | 24.7% |
| 2 IMT Novi Beograd | 20.6% | 5.0% | 20.7% | 11.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vojvodina pick | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +6.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -13.6% | |
| 2 · IMT Novi Beograd | 11.6% | 8.62 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -49.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.4% | 1.13 | 1.20 | 83.3% | +6.1% | |
| X2 | 36.3% | 2.76 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -23.8% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vojvodina | 84.6% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB IMT Novi Beograd | 15.4% | 6.50 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.5% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | 1.86 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -13.1% | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +2.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.9% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.0% | 7.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.637 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.096 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vojvodina | IMT Novi Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLW | LDWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Vojvodina at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Vojvodina 2nd on 32, IMT Novi Beograd 4th on 23.
Form
Vojvodina have five wins from their last six (W W W W L W). Latest: 3–2 away at FK Partizan. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Sequence for IMT Novi Beograd: L D W L D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to FK Crvena Zvezda. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vojvodina 1.87 · IMT Novi Beograd 0.69 · total 2.56. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Vojvodina to win, probability 64%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Vojvodina 1–0 IMT Novi Beograd. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The Model pick is Vojvodina to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vojvodina v IMT Novi Beograd probabilities?
Vojvodina win 64%, draw 25%, IMT Novi Beograd win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Vojvodina 1–0 IMT Novi Beograd is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Vojvodina 1.87, IMT Novi Beograd 0.69 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Karađorđe Stadium – Super Liga.