- λ home
- 1.03
- λ away
- 1.85
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.7%
Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Radnik Surdulica v FK Partizan: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Radnik Surdulica v FK Partizan are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Surdulica (home) | 1.66 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 1.51 |
| FK Partizan (away) | 1.38 | 1.36 | 0.88 | 1.66 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.98 × 0.93 ≈ 1.51
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.17 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.03, λaway = 1.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Radnik Surdulica | 34.7% | 18.0% | 24.3% | 20.7% |
| X Draw | 24.5% | 20.0% | 26.5% | 22.7% |
| 2 FK Partizan | 40.8% | 62.0% | 49.2% | 56.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Radnik Surdulica | 20.7% | 4.84 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -23.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -22.8% | |
| 2 · FK Partizan | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +3.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.4% | 2.31 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -17.1% | |
| X2 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.2% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Radnik Surdulica | 26.7% | 3.74 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FK Partizan | 73.3% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -0.1% | |
| BTTS no | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -15.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.0% | 5.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.4% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.606 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Radnik Surdulica | FK Partizan |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWLWW | LLWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FK Partizan narrowly ahead at 57%; Radnik Surdulica 21%. Standings: Radnik Surdulica 6th on 23, FK Partizan 10th on 17.
Form
Radnik Surdulica, last six: D D W L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Zemun. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
FK Partizan, last six: L L W W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to Vojvodina. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): FK Partizan 5–0 Radnik Surdulica. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Radnik Surdulica 1.03 · FK Partizan 1.85 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Radnik Surdulica 1–2 FK Partizan. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 May 2026FK Partizan5–0Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Radnik Surdulica v FK Partizan probabilities?
Radnik Surdulica win 21%, draw 23%, FK Partizan win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan?
Radnik Surdulica 1–2 FK Partizan is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan?
Radnik Surdulica 1.03, FK Partizan 1.85 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan?
Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Stadion FK Radnik – Super Liga.