- λ home
- 1.23
- λ away
- 1.36
- Σλ total
- 2.59
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
OFK Beograd v Radnicki 1923: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for OFK Beograd v Radnicki 1923 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd (home) | 1.66 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| Radnicki 1923 (away) | 1.38 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.44 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.83 × 0.82 ≈ 1.14
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.58 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.59 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.59 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.23, λaway = 1.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 OFK Beograd | 29.4% | 38.0% | 32.5% | 35.7% |
| X Draw | 27.5% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 22.2% |
| 2 Radnicki 1923 | 43.1% | 44.0% | 39.7% | 42.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · OFK Beograd | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -1.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Radnicki 1923 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -5.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -9.2% | |
| X2 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.9% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB OFK Beograd | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Radnicki 1923 | 54.2% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.9% | 3.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -4.8% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.4% | 3.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.048 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | OFK Beograd | Radnicki 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWLD | WDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 22 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: OFK Beograd 12th on 11, Radnicki 1923 5th on 23.
Form
OFK Beograd have one win from their last six (L D L W L D). Latest: 1–3 away at Radnicki NIS. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Radnicki 1923, last six: W D D W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 5–0 at home to Mladost Lucani. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: OFK Beograd 1, Radnicki 1923 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Radnicki 1923 1–2 OFK Beograd. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG OFK Beograd 1.23 · Radnicki 1923 1.36 · total 2.59. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: OFK Beograd 1–2 Radnicki 1923. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Jul 2026Radnicki 19231–2OFK Beograd
- 9 Mar 2026OFK Beograd0–0Radnicki 1923
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the OFK Beograd v Radnicki 1923 probabilities?
OFK Beograd win 36%, draw 22%, Radnicki 1923 win 42%.
What is the most probable score for OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923?
OFK Beograd 1–2 Radnicki 1923 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923?
OFK Beograd 1.23, Radnicki 1923 1.36 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923?
Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Omladinski stadion – Super Liga.