- λ home
- 1.67
- λ away
- 0.44
- Σλ total
- 2.11
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–0 20.2%
Novi Pazar vs Zemun prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Novi Pazar v Zemun: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Novi Pazar v Zemun are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novi Pazar (home) | 1.66 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.68 |
| Zemun (away) | 1.38 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.90 × 1.13 ≈ 1.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.37 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.11 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.11 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.67, λaway = 0.44
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 20.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Novi Pazar | 60.1% | 68.0% | 67.9% | 68.0% |
| X Draw | 25.1% | 24.0% | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| 2 Zemun | 14.8% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Novi Pazar | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -9.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.47 | 4.50 | 22.2% | +0.6% | |
| 2 · Zemun | 9.7% | 10.31 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -27.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.3% | 1.11 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -2.5% | |
| X2 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -3.9% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Novi Pazar | 87.5% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Zemun | 12.5% | 8.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.3% | 6.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.2% | 2.16 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -11.7% | |
| BTTS no pick | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -3.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.2% | 10.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.538 × 1.80 − 1 = -0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Novi Pazar | Zemun |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDLWL | DLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Novi Pazar 68% to win. Standings: Novi Pazar 8th on 19, Zemun 14th on 7.
Form
Novi Pazar, last six: D W D L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Cukaricki. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Zemun, last six: D L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Radnik Surdulica. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Novi Pazar 1.67 · Zemun 0.44 · total 2.11. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Novi Pazar 1–0 Zemun. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Novi Pazar vs Zemun?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Novi Pazar v Zemun probabilities?
Novi Pazar win 68%, draw 22%, Zemun win 10%.
What is the most probable score for Novi Pazar vs Zemun?
Novi Pazar 1–0 Zemun is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Novi Pazar vs Zemun?
Novi Pazar 1.67, Zemun 0.44 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Novi Pazar vs Zemun?
Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Novi Pazar City Stadium – Super Liga.