- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 0.78
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.6%
Vojvodina vs Železničar Pančevo prediction & xG model: Vojvodina to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Vojvodina v Železničar Pančevo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipVojvodina to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Vojvodina v Železničar Pančevo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vojvodina (home) | 1.66 | 1.27 | 0.69 | 1.46 |
| Železničar Pančevo (away) | 1.38 | 1.18 | 0.70 | 1.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.27 × 0.69 ≈ 1.46
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.60 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 0.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vojvodina | 43.5% | 72.0% | 56.4% | 65.4% |
| X Draw | 27.3% | 18.0% | 24.0% | 20.5% |
| 2 Železničar Pančevo | 29.2% | 10.0% | 19.6% | 14.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vojvodina pick | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +4.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.87 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -23.0% | |
| 2 · Železničar Pančevo | 14.0% | 7.13 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -35.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.0% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +0.6% | |
| X2 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -22.2% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vojvodina | 82.3% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Železničar Pančevo | 17.7% | 5.66 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -6.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.6% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.0% | 7.14 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.654 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.078 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vojvodina | Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLL | DDLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Vojvodina 65% to win. Standings: Vojvodina 2nd on 32, Železničar Pančevo 3rd on 29.
Form
Sequence for Vojvodina: L W W L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Novi Pazar. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Železničar Pančevo, last six: D D L L W W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at OFK Beograd. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vojvodina 1.97 · Železničar Pančevo 0.78 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Vojvodina to win, probability 65%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Vojvodina 1–0 Železničar Pančevo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vojvodina vs Železničar Pančevo?
The Model pick is Vojvodina to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vojvodina v Železničar Pančevo probabilities?
Vojvodina win 65%, draw 21%, Železničar Pančevo win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Vojvodina vs Železničar Pančevo?
Vojvodina 1–0 Železničar Pančevo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vojvodina vs Železničar Pančevo?
Vojvodina 1.97, Železničar Pančevo 0.78 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Vojvodina vs Železničar Pančevo?
Sunday 23 August 2026, 20:00 WAT – Super Liga.