Serbia Super Liga Sun 23 Aug 2026 · EFBET Stadion Full time

Radnik Surdulica

LDDLW

1–0

Half-time 1–0

Novi Pazar

WDLLW

55%P(1)21%P(X)24%P(2)

λ home: 1.31
λ away: 0.69
Σλ total: 2.00
P(over 2.5): 32%
P(BTTS): 53%
Modal score: 1–0 17.7%

Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar prediction & xG model: Radnik Surdulica to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Radnik Surdulica v Novi Pazar: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipRadnik Surdulica to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Radnik Surdulica v Novi Pazar are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Radnik Surdulica (home)	1.66	0.98	0.75	1.22
Novi Pazar (away)	1.38	0.90	0.88	1.09

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.98 × 0.75 ≈ 1.22

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.30	64%
Statistical xG feed	2.00	36%
Blended total λ	2.00	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.31, λ_away = 0.69

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Radnik Surdulica λ = 1.31

027.1%

135.4%

223.1%

310.1%

43.3%

5+1.1%

Novi Pazar λ = 0.69

050.0%

134.7%

212.0%

32.8%

40.5%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Rad \ Nov012345+

0149.43.20.8··

118124.21.0··

2128.02.80.6··

35.03.51.2···

41.61.1····

5+0.5·····

Σ home-win cells: 51.4%
Σ draw cells: 28.9%
Σ away-win cells: 19.8%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 17.7%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Radnik Surdulica	38.3%	61.0%	46.9%	55.1%
X Draw	29.7%	16.0%	28.9%	21.4%
2 Novi Pazar	32.0%	23.0%	24.2%	23.5%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.116 → 11.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Radnik Surdulica pick	55.1%	1.82	1.91	52.4%	+5.2%
X · Draw	21.4%	4.67	3.10	32.3%	-33.6%
2 · Novi Pazar	23.5%	4.25	3.70	27.0%	-13.0%
Double chance
1X	76.5%	1.31	1.22	82.0%	-6.7%
X2	44.9%	2.23	1.80	55.6%	-19.1%
12	78.6%	1.27	1.30	76.9%	+2.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Radnik Surdulica	70.1%	1.43	–	–	–
DNB Novi Pazar	29.9%	3.34	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	59.4%	1.68	–	–	–
Under 1.5	40.6%	2.46	–	–	–
Over 2.5	32.3%	3.09	–	–	–
Under 2.5	67.7%	1.48	–	–	–
Over 3.5	14.3%	7.00	–	–	–
Under 3.5	85.7%	1.17	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	53.0%	1.89	1.80	55.6%	-4.5%
BTTS no	47.0%	2.13	1.85	54.1%	-13.1%
Half-time
HT 1	34.9%	2.87	–	–	–
HT X	49.1%	2.04	–	–	–
HT 2	16.1%	6.23	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickRadnik Surdulica to win

Probability55.1%

Fair odds1.82

Best odds1.91

EV per unit+5.2%

EV = 0.551 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.052 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.057 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Radnik Surdulica	Novi Pazar
Sequence	WLDDLL	WLLDWD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	2-2-2
Points per match	0.83	1.33
Goals for / match	0.67	0.83
Goals against / match	2.33	1.17
Over 2.5	67%	17%
BTTS	50%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	50%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Radnik Surdulica 55%, draw 21%, Novi Pazar 24%. Standings: Radnik Surdulica 6th on 23, Novi Pazar 8th on 19.

Form

Radnik Surdulica, last six: W L D D L L – one win in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Macva. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.

Novi Pazar, last six: W L L D W D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Vojvodina. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Apr 2026): Radnik Surdulica 2–0 Novi Pazar. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Radnik Surdulica 1.31 · Novi Pazar 0.69 · total 2.00. Low total: under 2.5 68%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Radnik Surdulica to win, probability 55%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Novi Pazar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

22 Apr 2026Radnik Surdulica2–0Novi Pazar

Super Liga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	15	14	1	0	+32	43
2	Vojvodina	15	10	2	3	+17	32
3	Železničar Pančevo	14	9	2	3	+12	29
4	IMT Novi Beograd	15	6	5	4	+6	23
5	Radnicki 1923	15	7	2	6	+3	23
6	Radnik Surdulica	15	6	5	4	+2	23
7	Cukaricki	15	6	4	5	0	22
8	Novi Pazar	15	5	4	6	-1	19
9	Mladost Lucani	15	4	6	5	-9	18
10	FK Partizan	15	5	2	8	-1	17
11	Macva	15	3	4	8	-13	13
12	OFK Beograd	15	2	5	8	-12	11
13	Radnicki NIS	14	2	2	10	-15	8
14	Zemun	15	1	4	10	-21	7