- λ home
- 0.65
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 2.11
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–1 17.7%
Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan prediction & xG model: FK Partizan to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Mladost Lucani v FK Partizan: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFK Partizan to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Mladost Lucani v FK Partizan are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mladost Lucani (home) | 1.66 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| FK Partizan (away) | 1.38 | 1.36 | 0.92 | 1.73 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.69 × 0.93 ≈ 1.07
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.11 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.11 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.65, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 16.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 17.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mladost Lucani | 22.9% | 15.0% | 23.0% | 18.4% |
| X Draw | 24.9% | 20.0% | 27.2% | 23.0% |
| 2 FK Partizan | 52.2% | 65.0% | 49.8% | 58.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mladost Lucani | 18.4% | 5.45 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -28.4% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -24.1% | |
| 2 · FK Partizan pick | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +5.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.4% | 2.42 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -21.0% | |
| X2 | 81.6% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -0.4% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mladost Lucani | 23.8% | 4.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FK Partizan | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.3% | 6.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -11.6% | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.15 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -2.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.3% | 7.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.586 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.069 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mladost Lucani | FK Partizan |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDDL | LLWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FK Partizan narrowly ahead at 59%; Mladost Lucani 18%. Standings: Mladost Lucani 9th on 18, FK Partizan 10th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Mladost Lucani: W D D D D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Zemun. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
FK Partizan, last six: L L W W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Getafe. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mladost Lucani 0.65 · FK Partizan 1.46 · total 2.11. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FK Partizan to win, probability 59%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Mladost Lucani 0–1 FK Partizan. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan?
The Model pick is FK Partizan to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mladost Lucani v FK Partizan probabilities?
Mladost Lucani win 18%, draw 23%, FK Partizan win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan?
Mladost Lucani 0–1 FK Partizan is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan?
Mladost Lucani 0.65, FK Partizan 1.46 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan?
Sunday 23 August 2026, 20:00 WAT – Super Liga.