- λ home
- 2.21
- λ away
- 0.67
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–0 13.7%
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FK Crvena Zvezda v Cukaricki: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FK Crvena Zvezda v Cukaricki are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (42 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda (home) | 1.66 | 1.69 | 0.80 | 2.23 |
| Cukaricki (away) | 1.38 | 1.06 | 0.58 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.69 × 0.80 ≈ 2.23
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.08 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.21, λaway = 0.67
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FK Crvena Zvezda | 67.8% | 68.0% | 78.7% | 72.5% |
| X Draw | 19.4% | 20.0% | 14.2% | 17.6% |
| 2 Cukaricki | 12.8% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 9.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FK Crvena Zvezda | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -15.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.6% | 5.70 | 6.50 | 15.4% | +14.1% | |
| 2 · Cukaricki | 9.9% | 10.06 | 13.00 | 7.7% | +29.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.1% | 1.11 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -7.2% | |
| X2 | 27.5% | 3.64 | 4.75 | 21.1% | +30.6% | |
| 12 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -9.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FK Crvena Zvezda | 87.9% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cukaricki | 12.1% | 8.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.1% | 8.99 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.547 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.049 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FK Crvena Zvezda | Cukaricki |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLWW | WDWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FK Crvena Zvezda 73% to win. Standings: FK Crvena Zvezda 1st on 43, Cukaricki 7th on 22.
Form
Sequence for FK Crvena Zvezda: W L W L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Plzen. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Cukaricki, last six: W D W W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to OFK Beograd. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Cukaricki 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FK Crvena Zvezda 2.21 · Cukaricki 0.67 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Cukaricki. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 May 2026Cukaricki1–2FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the FK Crvena Zvezda v Cukaricki probabilities?
FK Crvena Zvezda win 73%, draw 18%, Cukaricki win 10%.
What is the most probable score for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki?
FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Cukaricki is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki?
FK Crvena Zvezda 2.21, Cukaricki 0.67 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki?
Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Stadion Rajko Mit – Super Liga.