- λ home
- 1.25
- λ away
- 2.29
- Σλ total
- 3.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.5%
Monza vs Atalanta prediction & xG model: Atalanta to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Monza v Atalanta: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
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- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAtalanta to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Monza v Atalanta are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.85 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.25, λaway = 2.29
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Monza | – | 20.0% | 26.4% | 22.7% |
| X Draw | – | 6.0% | 25.0% | 14.0% |
| 2 Atalanta | – | 74.0% | 48.7% | 63.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.054 → 5.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Monza | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -18.4% | |
| X · Draw | 14.0% | 7.16 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -46.9% | |
| 2 · Atalanta pick | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +23.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.6% | 2.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -34.0% | |
| X2 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -1.0% | |
| 12 | 86.0% | 1.16 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Monza | 26.4% | 3.79 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atalanta | 73.6% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -3.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.2% | 6.59 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -16.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -0.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -11.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -3.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -6.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.5% | |
| BTTS no | 36.4% | 2.74 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -4.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.8% | 5.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.634 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.236 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.248 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Monza | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLD | DLDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Atalanta favoured on the road at 63% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Monza 18th on 7, Atalanta 12th on 14.
Form
Monza have one win from their last six (L L L W L D). Latest: 1–2 away at Bologna. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Atalanta have zero wins from their last six (D L D D L L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Kairat Almaty. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Monza 1.25 · Atalanta 2.29 · total 3.54. High total: over 2.5 66%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Atalanta to win, probability 63%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Monza 1–2 Atalanta. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Monza vs Atalanta?
The Model pick is Atalanta to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Monza v Atalanta probabilities?
Monza win 23%, draw 14%, Atalanta win 63%.
What is the most probable score for Monza vs Atalanta?
Monza 1–2 Atalanta is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Monza vs Atalanta?
Monza 1.25, Atalanta 2.29 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Monza vs Atalanta?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Serie A.