- λ home
- 1.81
- λ away
- 1.41
- Σλ total
- 3.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Inter vs Como prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Inter v Como: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Inter v Como are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter (home) | 1.55 | 1.54 | 0.64 | 1.53 |
| Como (away) | 1.43 | 1.10 | 0.84 | 1.32 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.54 × 0.64 ≈ 1.53
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.84 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.81, λaway = 1.41
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inter | 41.7% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 48.9% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 16.0% | 23.1% | 19.0% |
| 2 Como | 32.3% | 34.0% | 29.6% | 32.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.056 → 5.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inter | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -2.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.27 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -22.2% | |
| 2 · Como | 32.1% | 3.11 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +2.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.7% | |
| X2 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -8.0% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inter | 60.3% | 1.66 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Como | 39.7% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.9% | 5.59 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -10.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -6.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -1.0% | |
| BTTS no | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -16.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.3% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.8% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.9% | 3.86 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.647 × 1.53 − 1 = -0.010 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inter | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWWW | WWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Inter ahead at 49%, against 32% for Como and 19% for the draw. Standings: Inter 2nd on 28, Como 5th on 23.
Form
Inter, last six: W L W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Feyenoord. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Como have six wins from their last six (W W W W W W). Latest: 9–1 away at Lens. Scoring rate: 3.7 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Previous 2: Inter 1, Como 0, drawn 1, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Apr 2026): Inter 3–2 Como. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inter 1.81 · Como 1.41 · total 3.22. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Inter 2–1 Como. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 21 Apr 2026Inter3–2Como
- 3 Mar 2026Como0–0Inter
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inter vs Como?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Inter v Como probabilities?
Inter win 49%, draw 19%, Como win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Inter vs Como?
Inter 2–1 Como is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inter vs Como?
Inter 1.81, Como 1.41 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Inter vs Como?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Serie A.