- λ home
- 1.49
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 3.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.9%
Napoli vs Lazio prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Napoli v Lazio: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Napoli v Lazio are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.10 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.04 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.49, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Napoli | – | 35.0% | 41.9% | 37.9% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.5% | 20.6% |
| 2 Lazio | – | 48.0% | 32.5% | 41.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.060 → 6.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Napoli | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -14.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.86 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -23.9% | |
| 2 · Lazio | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.90 | 34.5% | +20.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -18.1% | |
| X2 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -2.5% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Napoli | 47.7% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lazio | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.9% | 5.28 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -5.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.44 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -5.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -8.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -3.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -13.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.3% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.5% | 3.17 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Napoli | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDWL | WWWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Napoli 38%, draw 21%, Lazio 42%. Standings: Napoli 10th on 15, Lazio 1st on 29.
Form
Napoli have two wins from their last six (L L W D W L). Latest: 1–4 away at FC Porto. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Lazio, last six: W W W W W D – five wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Cagliari. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Napoli 1.49 · Lazio 1.58 · total 3.07. Goals expected – 59% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Napoli 1–2 Lazio. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Napoli vs Lazio?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Napoli v Lazio probabilities?
Napoli win 38%, draw 21%, Lazio win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Napoli vs Lazio?
Napoli 1–2 Lazio is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Napoli vs Lazio?
Napoli 1.49, Lazio 1.58 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Napoli vs Lazio?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 12:30 WAT, at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona – Serie A.