- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 1.68
- Σλ total
- 3.30
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.0%
Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sonderjyske v Silkeborg: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Sonderjyske v Silkeborg are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske (home) | 1.68 | 0.90 | 1.19 | 1.80 |
| Silkeborg (away) | 1.42 | 0.91 | 1.32 | 1.71 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 0.90 × 1.19 ≈ 1.80
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.51 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.30 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.30 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 1.68
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sonderjyske | 40.2% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% |
| X Draw | 23.1% | 17.0% | 26.9% | 21.1% |
| 2 Silkeborg | 36.7% | 45.0% | 35.1% | 40.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sonderjyske | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -8.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -28.1% | |
| 2 · Silkeborg | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.60 | 38.5% | +6.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -14.8% | |
| X2 | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.0% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sonderjyske | 48.2% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Silkeborg | 51.8% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.1% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.9% | 6.31 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.1% | |
| BTTS no | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -14.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.1% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.659 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.051 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sonderjyske | Silkeborg |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDLW | DWDDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 21 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Sonderjyske 12th on 9, Silkeborg 9th on 15.
Form
Sonderjyske have two wins from their last six (L W L D L W). Latest: 0–3 away at Aarhus. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Silkeborg have one win from their last six (D W D D D L). Latest: 3–3 at home to AC Horsens. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Sonderjyske 2–1 Silkeborg. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sonderjyske 1.62 · Silkeborg 1.68 · total 3.30. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 66%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Sonderjyske 1–2 Silkeborg. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Feb 2026Sonderjyske2–1Silkeborg
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sonderjyske v Silkeborg probabilities?
Sonderjyske win 38%, draw 21%, Silkeborg win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg?
Sonderjyske 1–2 Silkeborg is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg?
Sonderjyske 1.62, Silkeborg 1.68 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Haderslev Fodbold Stadion – Superliga.