- λ home
- 1.25
- λ away
- 1.55
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Odense vs Brondby prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Odense v Brondby: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Odense v Brondby are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odense (home) | 1.68 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.30 |
| Brondby (away) | 1.42 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 1.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 0.88 × 0.88 ≈ 1.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.68 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.80 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.25, λaway = 1.55
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Odense | 34.5% | 33.0% | 32.5% | 32.8% |
| X Draw | 27.1% | 17.0% | 26.0% | 20.8% |
| 2 Brondby | 38.3% | 50.0% | 41.4% | 46.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.097 → 9.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Odense | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -27.2% | |
| 2 · Brondby | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +2.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -14.2% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -5.9% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Odense | 41.4% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Brondby | 58.6% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -12.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.3% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.644 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.034 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Odense | Brondby |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDWWL | WLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Brondby narrowly ahead at 46%; Odense 33%. Standings: Odense 6th on 17, Brondby 5th on 22.
Form
Odense have two wins from their last six (D L D W W L). Latest: 0–0 away at FC Nordsjaelland. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Brondby, last six: W L W L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 5–2 at home to Lyngby. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Brondby 4–0 Odense. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Odense 1.25 · Brondby 1.55 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Odense 1–2 Brondby. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Jul 2026Brondby4–0Odense
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Odense vs Brondby?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Odense v Brondby probabilities?
Odense win 33%, draw 21%, Brondby win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Odense vs Brondby?
Odense 1–2 Brondby is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Odense vs Brondby?
Odense 1.25, Brondby 1.55 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Odense vs Brondby?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Odense Stadium – Superliga.